アメリカのジョンズ・ホプキンス大学「コロナウィルスによる死亡者は6500万人になる」と予測

the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people

コロナウィルス2019の流行は6500万人を殺すだろう

※ジョンズ・ホプキンス大学は、スタンフォード大学と共にヒドゥン・アイビーの一校として知られ、これまで36名以上のノーベル賞受賞者を輩出している世界屈指の名門大学


Statement about nCoV and our pandemic exercise

In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic tabletop exercise called Event 201 with partners, the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Recently, the Center for Health Security has received questions about whether that pandemic exercise predicted the current novel coronavirus outbreak in China. To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic. We are not now predicting that the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people. Although our tabletop exercise included a mock novel coronavirus, the inputs we used for modeling the potential impact of that fictional virus are not similar to nCoV-2019.